Stock pressure highlights the unilateral decline in fat

Since the beginning of September, domestic oil futures prices have been significantly adjusted back. Compared with the previous highs, the decline in oil and fat varieties has exceeded 5%. The industry believes that the downward trend in the price of oil futures is mainly affected by factors such as weak oil pattern, high palm oil inventory, and weak spot demand for fats. In the short term, the weak oil situation will continue.

Sun Wei, deputy general manager of China Spin-Weavy Jingzhou Co., Ltd., believes that the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday are approaching, and the stocking intensity of the market has been significantly weakened and the trading activity has declined. Recently affected by the sharp fall in the price of futures markets, the spot market for oils and oils also fell with the market. The pressure on the oil refinery stocks has been highlighted, and the psychology of early-stage price changes, and they have all been sold at low prices. In addition, the increase in previous oil production leads to the current high stocks difficult to digest in the short term.

Domestic palm oil stocks high <br> <br> data show that although affected by Ramadan, August Malaysian palm oil production has declined, but September and October will mark the peak production of palm oil, which will bring the market To come under heavy pressure.

While the output is expected to increase, the huge inventory pressure will also suppress palm oil prices. At present, there are 9 million to 10 million tons of soybeans, 800,000 to 1.2 million tons of soybean oil, and 1.7 million tons of rapeseed oil in the domestic oil and fat reserves. The overall supply of the market is sufficient. Palm oil in particular has been in oversupply for a long time. According to Zhuo Chuang statistics, at present domestic palm oil still has about 650,000 tons of port inventory, which is much higher than the normal level of around 500,000 tons. Palm oil stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia, the main producing countries, have both increased substantially. The market expects that Malaysia’s stock will be around 2.2 million tons in September this year, which is close to the highest level in 11 months.

Among the three major fats and oils, due to the relatively high melting point of palm oil, the seasonal characteristics of consumption of strong summer and weak summer are the most obvious. Wu Yuanji, an analyst at China International Futures (blog, Weibo), believes that as the temperature falls, palm oil will gradually solidify in the fourth quarter, coupled with the country’s high attention to food safety and the improvement of management standards for the food and catering industry. To a certain extent, it will weaken the demand for palm oil in the food industry. “In the context of the economic restructuring, the industrial demand situation of palm oil is also more severe, and it has brought considerable resistance to palm oil prices in the short term,” said Wu Yuanzhang.

Rapeseed oil dumping rumors affect the market <br><br><br><br><br><br><br> According to the report, with the increase in the State Reserve soybean auction, there are also rumored rapeseed oil stocks recently. "This year, beans and oil have led the rise in commodities, and food prices have become the main factor driving the rise in CPI. To avoid excessive price increases in agricultural products, it is also reasonable to cast seed oil while dumping soybeans." Hubei Hongsen Yao Yong, the secretary of the group, told the Futures Daily that under the general environment of policy stability, the regulatory pressure on domestic rapeseed oil is still very high.

“The domestic rapeseed oil has basically entered the national storage system, and there is a limited amount of circulation in the market. The national reserve system has a large amount of rapeseed oil reserves. From the perspective of storage time, Tengkuo and the current economic situation, it is very It may be thrown away." Sun Wei believes that the expected increase in throwing reserves will have a certain impact on the recent price of oils and fats. Whether it is to adopt market auction methods or targeted sales, the purpose is to suppress prices and ease the pressure of rising prices.

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