Vegetable prices rebounded sharply in May CPI or hit a new high in 34 months

Affected by the heavy drought, vegetable prices in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have shown a sharp rebound, while vegetable prices in the northern region have also risen.

The change in the average price of major foods in 50 cities across the country announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 24 showed that leafy vegetables had risen significantly. Among the 7 major vegetables, the prices of leafy vegetables such as Chinese cabbage, rapeseed and celery rose by 11.9%, 16.4% and 11.6% respectively over the previous period. They have risen for two consecutive weeks, and the increase has significantly increased from the previous period.

According to another report, due to the effects of dry weather, the vegetable prices in the vegetable wholesale market in Hubei and Huhu have been rising recently. The wholesale price of green peppers has increased by 30%, the price of Chinese cabbage has increased by 60%, and the price of Chinese cabbage has doubled. . At the same time, the price of local vegetables has increased significantly since May in Jiangsu Province, and the prices of vegetables in other regions have been relatively stable.

The person in charge of a vegetable planting base in Nantong, Jiangsu, told the Daily Economic News that due to the weather-affecting output, the wholesale price of cabbage rose from about 1 to about 3 in recent days. The responsible person also stated that within the month of May this price estimate will hardly change.

Outside the arid zone, the reporter of “Daily Economic News” received information on vegetable prices from Baotou Friendship Vegetable Wholesale Market for more than a week. The price of vegetables has increased, including many varieties of Chinese cabbage, spinach and lettuce. Vegetable prices rose the most. Chinese cabbage rose from 0.6 yuan per kilogram to 1 yuan. In addition, the price of celery rose from 1.4 yuan per kilogram a week ago to 2.8 yuan per kilogram.

In April, due to factors such as large supply, the overall price of vegetables in the country continued to fall. The prices of individual varieties fell sharply, causing slow sales, backlogs, and prices of vegetables and other commodities to fall significantly. The decline in the price of vegetables is generally considered to be the main reason for the fall in the CPI increase in April.

According to the reporter's understanding, food weights currently account for about 30% of the CPI, while vegetables account for about 20% of the weight of food.

However, Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, told reporters that the cycle of vegetable production is shorter, prices are adjusted more quickly, and most of them are greenhouses, and the impact of climate conditions on the supply of vegetables is relatively small. The recent increase in the price of vegetables is a short-term fluctuation. To a certain extent, it is also the rebound in vegetable prices that fell sharply in late April and early May. Whether or not it will promote the increase in CPI in May depends on the situation in the late period.

Liu Yuanchun further pointed out that the increase in the price of meat, poultry and food will be more lasting, and in the medium and long term, the impact on CPI will be even greater.

The analysis from China Create Securities believes that according to the trend of food prices in the first three weeks of May, the May CPI forecast has been raised from 5.4% to 5.5%. If the forecast is achieved, this will be the highest level in the past 34 months for the CPI.