Forecast: The world dairy export market will rise in 2012

Despite the financial crisis in Europe and the uncertainties in the US dairy policy, dairy experts analyzed that the world dairy market in 2012 will be optimistic and may even rise. Marc Beck, vice president of marketing for the US Dairy Export Association, and Bart Van Belleghem, secretary general of the European Dairy Trade Association, said at a recent seminar.

MarcBeck said that it is expected that the dairy export market in 2012 will increase slightly. Now the price of dairy products is strong, and milk supply and demand are balanced.

Dr. Dryer, an adviser to the American Dairy Exporters Association, said that as the economy recovers from the global economic recession of 2009, the middle class in many countries will continue to grow and they will need more dairy products. These markets will continue to grow. China is a key factor. From January to October 2011, China's dairy production increased by 10% year-on-year.

Although India's dairy import intentions are not yet clear, India's entry into this market will bring changes to the market, which will be seen in 2012.

Bart Van Belleghem, secretary general of the European Dairy Trade Association, said that some Asian buyers believe that the EU will collapse, but so far, the European credit crisis has not really affected the dairy trade. The biggest problem for European dairy farmers is that the price of milk is too high to be competitive in the international market. In 2011, the average purchase price of raw milk in Europe was US$22/million (about 3.07 yuan per kg), and in 2010 it was US$20.5/million (about 2.86 yuan per kg); in 2009, it was US$17/million. (About 2.37 yuan per kilogram).

Dryer expects US milk prices to fall slightly in 2012. In 2011, the price of milk will be US$20/cm (approximately 2.79 yuan/kg); the milk price in 2012 will be slightly lower than this price. In the United States, milk production in the United States in 2011 increased by 1.7% year-on-year and is expected to increase slightly by 0.4% in 2012.