Non-ferrous metals prices are expected to maintain historical highs and continue to rise

The trend of metal prices has a very important impact on the industry's prosperity. Whether the future price can be maintained at a high level or even further rise, or the upward trend has been reversed, this is one of our concerns. After the record price of basic metals hit a record high in 2006-2007, the price decline was mainly affected by cyclical factors such as the economic slowdown in the United States and other Western countries. The rise of consumer demand in emerging markets and the long-term bottlenecks in supply still exist. Metal prices are expected to remain at historically high levels and continue to rise as cyclical factors weaken and even the Western economy accelerates again.

Recently, affected by power shortages and climatic factors in China, South Africa and other countries, the output of aluminum, copper, precious metals and other commodities has been affected. Whether the sustainability of production damage will change the market's expectation of supply and demand in 2008 will determine the metal. One of the fundamental factors of price trends. At present, the focus of the market is more focused on: the risk of the US economic recession, the increase in production in 2008 will lead to the expectation of excess metal. However, if the production losses in China, South Africa and other countries continue, the focus of the market is concentrated on the supply side, triggering the market to reassess the relationship between supply and demand of certain metals in 2008. If the general surplus is changed from basic surplus to basic balance or even shortage, A big impact on price trends. Combined with the current low inventory of major metal varieties and inflation expectations, we are more optimistic about the price trend of copper, tin and aluminum. At the same time, we are still optimistic about the gold price trend based on factors such as increased concerns about the US economic outlook, expectations of the Fed to continue to cut interest rates, and increased demand for gold investment.

Maintaining the industry's “stronger than the market” rating: The positive factors that may affect the performance of the non-ferrous sector include the rising tide of mergers and acquisitions, the reassessment of supply and demand caused by supply disruption factors, and the re-acceleration of the Western economy. We are bullish on gold, copper, tin and aluminum. The performance of the sub-industry.

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